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Mduduzi Sibisi
mdu.sibisi
A lover of words, games and an avid Arsenal fan since the age of six.
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mdu.sibisi
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E-SPORTS
Is Esports Dying or Just Evolving?
1
mdu.sibisi
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a day ago
BOXING
What Powerscalers Get Wrong and What it Reveals About Combat Sports
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Emirates Stadium
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6 days ago
FOOTBALL (SOCCER)
Is The Football Transfer Market Cooked?
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Emirates Stadium
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9 days ago
FOOTBALL (SOCCER)
Arsenal vs Conventry City: Five Things We Learned
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 (2003). Back then, gaming was a niche hobby. I would never have guessed that it would eventually generate enough cultural capital to become a bankable career.
Much of esports’ emergence can be credited to the introduction of streaming platforms like Twitch in the 2010s. Millions of people all around the world could now watch matches live. This generated new interest and investment. The mainstream began to take competitive gamers (*eAthletes*) seriously.
However, there’s been a shift in recent years. Esports doesn’t seem to garner as much excitement and attention as it used to - especially compared to other sports. Is this because it’s lost its sheen due to familiarity or something else?
## The golden age of esports
Many in the gaming community point to the early to late 2010s (roughly 2013-2019) as the golden era of esports. This was the peak period for construction and openings for esports stadiums. Some notable sites and venues include:
· Blizzard Arena (2017, USA)
· Esports Stadium Arlington (2018, USA)
· LoL Park (2018, Korea)
· Busan e-Sports Stadium (2019, Korea)
Near the tail-end of the esports boom, we began to see celebrities invest in various companies and teams, which worked to further legitimise competitive gaming in the eyes of the mainstream. One of the most notable examples of this was rapper, singer and actor Drake investing in the esports organisation [100 Thieves](https://100thieves.com/) in October 2018. He was far from the first, though. Before him, celebrities like Shaquille O’Neal and Ashton Kutcher had thrown their hats in the ring.
This newfound pop culture interest shifted how esports was marketed. Brands and organisations all over the world began leveraging lifestyle marketing strategies to attract sponsors and audiences. The ultimate goal was to make gaming and esports look cool and trendy.
## Where did the momentum go?
Esports' decline in momentum came around the time the COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing. Lockdowns initially boosted the competitive gaming industry by driving viewership on streams and spending on merchandise and gaming hardware. However, when live events and traditional sports returned, interest in competitive gaming faltered. It was a bit like that old [Toy Story](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/i-dont-want-to-play-with-you-anymore) (*I don’t want to play with you anymore*) meme.
Sponsorships declined, which resulted in reduced prize pools and financial strain on organisations. Not dissimilar to what we’re seeing in [tech](https://news.crunchbase.com/startups/tech-layoffs/), esports organisations invested and scaled too heavily during the pandemic. This left them exposed when growth slowed. All this culminated in what many insiders now refer to as the [Esports Winter](https://teamliquid.com/news/enduring-the-esports-winter) (2022 to 2023).
## Recovery?
On December 4th, 2023, [Arnold Hur](https://old.koreasociety.org/business-economics/young-professionals/item/1802) (Gen.G Arnold), CEO of Gen.G Sports, published an [X post](https://x.com/arnoldwh/status/1731685887916838993) that covered how the industry could potentially get past the Esports Winter. Some ideas included forming strategic alliances with publishers and developing new revenue streams. It’s unclear how many organisations took these suggestions to heart, but soon enough, the industry was on the mend.
Unsustainable franchise models and over-leveraged organisations were forced out and replaced with new sponsors, regional circuits, and Saudi-backed investment. By the end of 2025, global esports was generating upwards of [$5 billion](https://sqmagazine.co.uk/esports-statistics/) in yearly revenue and 640 million in viewership. The aim for the industry has now shifted to sustainability.
Technology has always invited speculative mania. We’ve seen how crypto and app development made overnight millionaires and billionaires. Many thought esports would bring them the same prosperity. When it didn’t, they soured on the industry - which was frankly a blessing.
## The other elephant in the room: sports betting
The Sports Betting market dwarfs the esports market significantly. Sports Betting is projected to reach over [$88 billion](https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/gambling/sports-betting/worldwide/#revenue) in revenue by the end of 2026. We can compare the two because they both involve gaming, and yet they don’t seem to gel well together.
Globally, football (soccer) dominates sports betting, accounting for nearly two‑thirds of all wagers, followed by basketball, American football (NFL), horse racing, and tennis. Esports barely factors into the conversation when we’re talking about gambling.
Esports tournaments and matches aren’t compatible with sports betting. There are too many variables and too many different games. Esports fans tend to skew younger, with many of them under the legal gambling age. Regulators are also cautious about betting exposure to minors.
A lot of the advertising real estate that was occupied by esports has now been swallowed up by gambling. It generates more money, and it's far friendlier to fast-money investors. Hence, esports doesn’t have as much visibility as it used to. But it has never left the zeitgeist because it is so closely intertwined with gaming. Whether casual or hardcore, as long as gamers exist, esports will continue to thrive.
## Conclusion: still alive and kicking
While esports may never reach the heights of notoriety it did during its salad days, the industry is still alive and well and even growing. Thanks to handhelds and cloud gaming, esports are becoming more accessible. Cheaper hardware reduces barriers to entry, allowing more people to spectate and participate. Esports has largely been restored to its niche status. However, it definitely isn’t dead or going anywhere soon and is still a viable career path for gamers.](https://d32kj04sxj85qr.cloudfront.net/private/users/d4d82418-d0c1-704d-2a4e-2c36095584de/clips/e08dc1dd-5d1e-4d47-a609-3b9cf4739b0a.jpeg)
. The powerscaler may then declare that one character is superior to the other or would win in a fight based on these characters’ stats.
Some powerscalers approach it like a science, feverishly recounting every feat, win and loss. I’ve witnessed online powerscaling debates so intense that they escalated into personal attacks and ended in death threats. So powerscalers can be a passionate bunch, particularly when their favourite characters are in the crosshairs.
However, their logic in why one character would defeat another tends to be too simplistic and ultimately flawed. I see the same heuristics applied by casual MMA and boxing fans.
## Fights unfold like calculus; they don’t add up like arithmetic
Most powerscalers use [transitive inference](https://copal.wp.drake.edu/research-2/relational-learning/) (if A > B and C > A, then C > A) to determine or assert why one character would like beat another. For instance, if Character A beat Character B but lost to Character C, then Character C would logically beat Character B. Nice, simple, and straightforward. However, nothing in life is ever that simple.
We’ve seen transitive inference repeatedly fail in combat sports. One of the most famous examples is Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier vs. George Foreman. Frazier beats Ali in 1971 (“[Fight of the Century](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1076809/)”), then goes on to lose to Foreman in 1973. If transitive inference was a reliable way to predict the outcome of fights, Foreman would have destroyed Ali in the [Rumble in the Jungle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rumble_in_the_Jungle). Instead, Ali handed Foreman his first loss by knockout in the eighth round.
## That old cliché
If you’ve been watching combat sports long enough, you’re bound to encounter the term: “styles make fights”. Ali vs Foreman was a classic example of a pressure fighter going against and losing to a counter-puncher. We’ve seen this happen with Floyd Mayweather vs. Ricky Hatton (2007) and Gene Tunney vs. Jack Dempsey (1926, 1927). So raw power and past feats aren’t a good way to measure the superiority of one fighter (or a fictional character) over another.
However, while counterpunchers tend to have an edge over pressure fighters, there have been plenty of cases where pressure fighters beat counterpunchers. Famously, Marvin Hagler vs. Thomas Hearns (1985) and Roberto Durán vs. Ken Buchanan (1972). Power, precision and how effectively you apply your style matter too.
A successful counterpunching strategy requires the fighter employing it to be disciplined, maintain composure and punish reckless entries. But if the pressure fighter can cut distance without swallowing clean counters, they can find a way to win.
## The fallibility of man
Fight predictions, even educated ones, are surprisingly unreliable. While analysts, betting markets, and AI models outperform random guessing, they still miss outcomes often enough to underscore the unpredictability of combat sports.
Accuracy hovers around **60–65% for expert analyst predictions in MMA and boxing**. This means roughly **1 in 3 predictions is wrong**, even when backed by deep stylistic breakdowns. Favourites win about **65–70% of the time in betting markets**, but upsets occur frequently enough to keep betting risky. Odds reflect public sentiment as much as fighter skill.
Even AI predictions falter. According to UFC datasets, benchmarked accuracy ranges **62–68%**. Even “high confidence” predictions (70–80%) still miss about **1 in 3 times.**
**All of this is a reminder of how fallible and inconsistent people are – those who make the predictions and those the predictions are based on. Even experts** can’t account for all the variables that go into a fight – never mind casual observers.
Training camp injuries, weight cuts, or mental state are hard to factor into models. While pre-fight interviews can help gain insight into each fighter’s preparedness and mental state, they’re not foolproof. Things can change swiftly on the day of the fight. Family tragedy or unexpected bad news can destabilise a fighter’s mental state.
Fights are chaotic. A slip, sudden injury, errant punch, or kick, etc. can flip outcomes instantly. Fighters also age, evolve, improve, or regress. Future predictions largely hinge on past performances.
## Bringing chaos to order
Powercaling and death battle debates are essentially a sport unto themselves. They satisfy deep psychological, biological, and social needs by providing identity and belonging, and offer a safe arena for competition, drama, and emotional release.
Some powerscalers and death battle enthusiasts aren’t completely unaware of how volatile athletic performance is. Hence, they’ll often try to put the contestants of a fantasy matchup on even ground.
Terms of combat would be something like: “Who would win between character A and B if both characters were at their peak and in possession of all their gear?” They may even dictate a venue or location for the meeting.
Under these circumstances, you can control most of the variables. The mistake happens when powerscalers attempt to take this principle and apply it to actual real-life matches. You can never assume that both fighters are at their peak at any given time.
Stories frequently rely on tropes to attract intrigue. One of the most overused is [Underdogs Never Lose](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/UnderdogsNeverLose), which is closely connected to the concept of [plot armour](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/PlotArmor). These storytelling devices can dictate who wins in a fictional fight – not the supposed skills or power levels of the fighters. It would also be boring to see fights in fiction progress linearly. A protagonist that wins through ingenuity, wit and great is more appealing than one who triumphs through sheer power – at least to me.
While it’s tempting to view real-life combat through the same lens, it isn’t wise…
## Conclusion: Separating fact from fiction
There aren’t many actual heroes and villains in combat sports, despite what wrestling would have us believe. This is one of the many reasons why it’s not a good idea to bring comic book, anime, or movie sensibilities into your assessment of sports, especially if you’re engaging in sports betting.
All gambling should be approached with a sober mind. You need to conduct as much research as you can, ignore transitive logic that many powerscalers lean on so heavily, look for odds where the risk/reward balance makes sense and track your bets closely. Remember to set a budget and gamble responsibly.
So what do you think? Am I being too harsh on powerscalers? Am I actually missing the point and overintellectualising it? Leave a comment below.](https://d32kj04sxj85qr.cloudfront.net/private/users/d4d82418-d0c1-704d-2a4e-2c36095584de/clips/b804c962-3f7d-4313-ae41-e49c12d1c734.jpeg)
 can bring an entity’s downfall. Attempted reinvestments went terribly, and wages spiralled, leading to financial instability and a debt crisis that would debilitate the club for years.
It has been nearly a decade since the transfer; Neymar has retired from international football and playing for his childhood club (Santos), and Barcelona FC has found its way back to the top of La Liga. Looking back, we can now surmise that while the transfer resulted in distortions in France and Spain, the English Premier League absorbed most of the shock.
Witnessing transfers valued over £100m was a rarity five years ago. During the 2026 summer transfer window, three players broke that margin:
· Morgan Rogers: £117m
· Elliot Anderson: £116m
· Sandro Tonali: £100m
Each was a record-breaking signing for the respective club (Chelsea, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur). Fittingly, these three clubs could be blamed for the current state of the transfer market.
## How the EPL rewired the transfer market
The EPL was insulated from the shockwaves that Neymar’s transfer created because of its financial dominance. While Ligue 1 and La Liga’s wealth is concentrated among a few teams, the EPL’s fortune is more spread out. This means a greater number of teams can afford to splurge on talent – provided they comply with [FFP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Financial_Fair_Play_Regulations), [PSR, and SCR rules](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c0m7xn7j4zko).
The EPL’s wealth comes from its enormous TV rights deals, global commercial partnerships, and billionaire ownership. Broadcast revenue is also shared equally among all 20 clubs, making the league more competitive. Even teams finishing at the bottom of the table can earn over £100m.
Despite this, no English football has matched or exceeded two of the most expensive player outlays in the history of association football (Neymar and Kylian Mbappe).
## The EPL’s spending habits
Where the Premier League sets itself apart is in its spend of home grown and league-proven talent. Intra‑Premier League transfers alone reached over £1.29bn in the 2025/2026 season, dwarfing spending patterns in La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1. The most expensive transfer in EPL history was Liverpool’s purchase of Alexander Isak for £125m from Newcastle in 2025.
However, the EPL’s intra-spending habits aren’t all by choice. Selling clubs outside of England are aware that Premier League sides are flush with cash, so they add what is known as a “Premier League tax” to fees. A £60m player for a Serie A club might be quoted at £80m+ if an EPL team comes calling.
## It’s not just a matter of greed
Smaller European clubs tend to see EPL buyers as pathways to balance their books, so they typically hold firm on valuations. But as evidenced by the sales of players like Elliot Anderson, Jack Grealish and Declan Rice, smaller Premier League clubs rely on this tactic too. They can't match the money bigger clubs make from sponsorship deals, merchandise sales and trophy hauls, so they must upsell whatever rare talent they have.
As a result, it would feel safe to assume that smaller clubs have made the most money from outgoing transfers over the last decade, right? Unfortunately, this isn’t the case at all. If we look at overall sales from the past decade (2015-2025), **Chelsea** made the most from outgoing sales (£1.17bn), followed by **Manchester City** (£865m), then **Liverpool** (£770m+).
So smaller clubs making big sales isn’t really a common occurrence. Larger clubs essentially have a monopoly on talent. Not only can they spend big on proven talent, but they can also scout and absorb upcoming talent through their youth academies.
Manchester City is a testament to this. It’s profited the most from sales because it has what is considered the most successful football youth academy in the world (not just England).
## So, what happens to smaller clubs?
Mid-table to bottom-tier clubs face the same inflated prices other teams in the league do. A player valued at £20m abroad might cost £35m+ in England. Even with investors, FFP rules make it harder for teams to find any real upwards mobility and crack into the top 6.
Newcastle United is a good example of this. The club was purchased on 7 October 2021 by a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), alongside PCP Capital Partners and RB Sports & Media. At the time of the deal, PIF’s estimated assets exceeded $700 billion, which instantly made Newcastle one of the richest clubs globally. This should have been a new dawn for the club and its fans, but in 2026, they find themselves without Champions League football, with a new manager, and down three key players (Isak, Guimarães, and Anderson).
With these financial restrictions (internal, external, and otherwise), it’s nigh impossible for smaller teams to contend for the title. Aston Villa put up a good showing in the 2025/2026 season, but struggled near the middle mark after incurring injuries and being unable to refresh their squad during the January transfer window. With Champions League football and a slightly weakened squad, it doesn’t look like Unai Emery will pull off this feat in the 2026/2027 season.
To survive, and at least mount an attempt for a European spot, smaller teams need to be savvy about their purchases. They’ll need to turn to ageing players, players whose contracts are running down, free agents, players from lesser-known leagues, and players who have fallen out of favour with their clubs. At the time of writing this blog, Jordan Sancho was still without a club. Which is frankly unbelievable.
While the transfer market may prove to be unsustainable in the long run (especially in England), it’s navigable – at least for now. Also, it’s important to note that spending big on players hasn’t always panned out, historically.
## Spending big doesn’t always produce big results
The majority of the most expensive transfers have not really been worth it, particularly in terms of return on investment. Clubs often pay for hype, potential, or market pressure, but the financial and sporting returns rarely match the outlay.
While Neymar may have boosted PSG’s global profile and commercial revenue, he failed to deliver Champions League success. £120m+ Philippe Coutinho was one of Barcelona’s biggest blunders. His performances on the field were so bad that he was eventually loaned out and sold at a loss. Ousmane Dembélé, now a success at PSG, was another example of Barcelona’s blunders. He was purchased for 105m+ but was plagued by injuries and couldn’t find any real form. There are many other such examples.
Sometimes, the best talent is discovered and nurtured. Barcelona FC earned its way back to the top by leveraging the young talents of Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres and Gavi alongside the shrewd leadership of Hansi Flick.
Elsewhere, not all big clubs are spending big. Arsenal’s £34m signing of Christos Tzolis is considered to be one of the savviest purchases of the 2026 summer transfer window, with some pundits comparing him to the likes of Alexis Sanchez. While its rivals splurged on big-money signings, the club focused on more pragmatic options.
Other solid European signings during this period included:
· Johan Manzambi to Aston Villa for £59.9m
· Curtis Jones to Inter for £30m
· Antonio Silva to Bournemouth for £40m
While it’s becoming more difficult to scout and make sensible signings, it’s still possible with the right team behind the scenes.
## The spending of so-called retirement leagues
Leagues like the MLS and Saudi Pro League have been gaining more validity over the last few years. In the early 2000s, the MLS was typically seen as a place where ageing stars (Beckham, Pirlo, Lampard, Gerrard) could go to wind down their careers.
Today, we see MLS clubs increasingly sign younger South American talents such as Miguel Almirón and Thiago Almada. They’ve also begun to invest more in homegrown talent. The 2026 World Cup is likely to accelerate MLS spending, both on marquee veterans and promising youngsters. The league will probably move closer to mid‑tier European spending levels, though still far below the Premier League.
The Saudi Pro League took a similar approach to the MLS. First, dolling out extravagant contracts to famous ageing players like Ronaldo, Benzema, Kanté, and Sadio Mané, then spending on young players like Summerville, Durán and most recently Gabriel Martinelli. While Saudi Arabia will have to wait till 2034 to enjoy the same windfall in cash and fanfare that the World Cup brought America, the Saudi Pro League does have substantial government backing over other leagues. The Saudi Public Investment Fund bankrolls major clubs, enabling record fees and wages.
One advantage the MLS and the Saudi Pro League have over the EPL is that they have fewer structural and regulatory barriers for signing South American prospects. The UK’s post‑Brexit points‑based system makes it harder for young South American players to qualify unless they’re already capped internationally. A 19‑year‑old Argentine prospect without senior caps may struggle to get clearance, whereas Saudi Arabia, America, Spain, or even Portugal have no such regulations.
This greatly limits the pool of players the EPL can snatch up, further contributing to sky-rocketing player evaluations.
## Conclusion
So is the transfer market cooked? The answer is a resounding *yes*, unless UEFA, the EPL and other governing bodies implement more sensible regulations. The market in its current state will undoubtedly continue to foster power imbalances among the clubs, stunting smaller clubs. It’s already extremely difficult for promoted clubs to remain in the EPL. Large transfer fees and bloated player wages make it nearly impossible to reinvest funds into infrastructure. I hope this will change in the future. But what do you think? Am I being overdramatic? Is the transfer market fine as is?](https://d32kj04sxj85qr.cloudfront.net/private/users/d4d82418-d0c1-704d-2a4e-2c36095584de/clips/e4e657b8-1adc-48ac-95dd-be2b9ac7a5d3.jpeg)
 comments on Arteta freezing Martinelli out of the squad. It feels disrespectful towards him, and it’s uncomfortable to watch.
## 4. We don’t talk about Bruno – Arsenal’s squad depth
After signing in August, we’ve only seen Bruno Guimarães play in two matches for Arsenal (Como and Manchester City). His integration was so natural across both games that it seemed as if he’d been wearing Arsenal’s colours forever. Thus, it was disappointing to see that he wasn’t on the squad against Coventry City.
It turns out that Bruno picked up a slight injury during the Community Shield match against Manchester City. Mikel Arteta confirmed that while the injury was minor, he didn’t want to risk Bruno, instead electing to manage his fitness carefully.
Despite jelling well with the squad, the manager wants to integrate Bruno carefully. He wasn’t missed, as Myles Lewis-Skelly started in midfield alongside Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard. Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino were also on the bench.
Bruno will be key to Arsenal’s trophy haul this season. His not being needed in Arsenal's decimation of Coventry is a testament to how deep Arsenal’s squad is.
## 5. A more positive style of play
Arsenal’s 2025/2026 style of play is considered the pinnacle of what is colloquially known as “haramball” (anti-football). This is a pragmatic defensive approach that relies on set-pieces and putting every player behind the ball.
Arsenal wasn’t always known for this style of play. Many fans who watched Arsenal last season found themselves yearning for Wenger-ball despite winning matches. Arsenal were more attacking and free-flowing against Coventry City.
One could surmise that it was because of the quality of their opponents. However, they played similarly against Man City during their Community Shield clash. It’s still early days, but it’s nice to see Arsenal play with a faster, more positive tempo.
## Conclusion
It’s looking to be another great season for Arsenal fans. In fact, it may even top the 2025/2026 season. All of this still hinges on how well The Gunners (and their rivals) move throughout the rest of the transfer window. Nevertheless, Arsenal’s performance against Coventry City should put their rivals on high alert. Yes, they’re a newly promoted side, but Manchester Utd’s loss against Hull City should remind us not to underestimate these teams. So what did you learn from Arsenal’s win over Coventry City?](https://d32kj04sxj85qr.cloudfront.net/private/users/d4d82418-d0c1-704d-2a4e-2c36095584de/clips/fefb1ab1-1390-4523-8218-ec424983c078.jpeg)